Methodology
TCGBerg's analytical framework rests on three pillars, applied in sequence: (1) Fair Value, an evidence-rated estimate of what one copy of a card is worth, built from completed sales; (2) Market Cap, that fair value multiplied by the graded population, giving the total implied value of every slabbed copy; (3) Indices, cap-weighted, evidence-dampened aggregations that turn those values into a single benchmark level for a set or print run. Every figure on TCGBerg flows from these three layers. The atom, the (printing, grader, grade) tuple, is the irreducible unit: not the card, not the printing, but the specific quality-graded copy the market actually transacts. Four tools then act on the pillars: deal detection, which flags listings priced below a fair value we trust and verifies them; the sell-price optimizer, which prices a card to sell by your deadline; the grading opportunity model, which judges whether a raw card is worth submitting; and the population screener, which measures how fast graded supply is growing. This page is the gateway to the detailed methodology for each. We explain how every number is built, what it does and does not promise, and where it is weakest.
Three pillars
Each layer compounds the one below. Atoms are valued; values are summed into cap; caps are weighted into indices.
Fair Value
An evidence-rated estimate of what one graded copy is worth, built only from completed sales. Recent trades count for more, bad data is screened out asymmetrically, thin cards borrow signal from comparable cards, and every value ships with a sales-evidence rating.
Market Cap
Fair value times graded population, per atom, summed into rollups by set, grade, or print run. The atom is the unit; the rollup is the sum. Populations come from the grading companies' own published reports.
Indices
Cap-weighted benchmarks, dampened by sales evidence, where population growth and membership changes are absorbed into a divisor so only price action moves the level. Per-grade and composite series, base 100 at inception.
Tools & signals
How the tools reach their numbers, each one built on the pillars above rather than on a rule of thumb.
Deal Detection
Active listings priced below a fair value that is both trusted and current, then run through a verification cascade (grader, grade, printing, PSA certificate) before they reach the screener. A four-component score ranks them; auctions are framed as current bids, not lockable discounts.
Sell Price Optimizer
The price to list a graded card at to net the most by your deadline. A probability-of-sale model over price relative to fair value, pooling for thinly traded cards, and fee-aware optimization, with an honest read of the sales evidence.
Grading Opportunity
Whether a raw card is worth submitting. Outcome odds from the printing's own population distribution, each grade valued net of fees, and the break-even price to pay, presented as the bet it is rather than as a margin.
Population Screener
Which cards are scarce and staying scarce. A fitted growth curve through every population snapshot, annualized, with guards that withhold a rate rather than publish an artifact, plus gem rates and the evidence behind each fit.