Lugia #78, Reverse Holo, XY - Fates Collide
- FC

- ·Card number: #78/124
- ·Rarity: Rare
A PSA 9 Lugia #78 Reverse Holo from XY - Fates Collide has a TCGBerg fair value of $292 as of Nov 14, 2026. TCGBerg has recorded 19 PSA 9 sales of this card, the latest on Oct 23, 2026. PSA has graded 134 copies at PSA 9.
TCGBerg Algorithm (estimated from recorded sales).
- Population · PSA 9
- 134
- Market cap
- $39.1K
- Volatility
- 5.8%
- YTD
- ↑ 532.5%
- Sales evidence
- Moderate
TCGBerg fair value · PSA 9
$292
Price history
Weekly fair value over time, plus a confidence band around it: how precisely we can pin the value, which tightens as more sales confirm it. Dots mark individual sales, snapped to their week: red when above fair value (a premium), green when below (a deal), hollow when flagged as an outlier. Switch the active grade with the selector above.Weekly fair value for PSA 9. Shaded area is the confidence band: how precisely we can pin the value; it tightens as more sales confirm it. Dots are individual sales. Confidence band: how precisely we can pin the fair value. It widens when sales scatter and narrows as more sales back the value up. The dots show the actual sale prices.
What the evidence says
The last PSA 9 sale, $350 on Oct 23, 2026, sits 19.9% above the $292 fair value. The value weighs 18 PSA 9 sales from the past year, not the latest one alone. The latest sale ran above the recent run: the last 5 PSA 9 sales averaged $299, within 2.4% of the value. Its confidence band runs from $247 to $337. A PSA 10 ($13,531) is worth 46.3 times a PSA 9 ($292). Over the past 30 days the PSA 9 value has risen 14.2%.
TCGBerg fair value by grade
Side-by-side comparison of value across every grade and ungraded condition we track for this printing. The bar chart uses a log scale so raw and gem-mint fit on one axis. Solid bars are the TCGBerg fair value, modelled from recorded sales. Hatched bars are the latest market price instead, shown for ungraded conditions that trade too rarely for us to price one honestly.Value at each grade and ungraded condition. Log scale. Tap a row to switch the whole page.
- Raw NM$12Ungraded · TCGBerg fair value
- Raw LP$6.20Ungraded · TCGBerg fair value
- Raw MP$2.98Ungraded · TCGBerg fair value
- Raw HP$1.72Ungraded · TCGBerg fair value
- Raw Damaged$1.25Ungraded · TCGBerg fair value
Behind the scenes
How the published fair value for this grade was produced: the sales it rests on, how they were put together, and every recorded change afterwards. It describes one saved calculation, not a live recomputation.What goes into this price, and how much we know.
Recent sales
20 trackedEach sale against the grade's fair value on the day it sold.
| Date | Grade | Venue | Price | vs fair value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | PSA8 | eBay | $292 | above fair value by +75.6% |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Raw | tcgplayer | $17 | above fair value by +36.2% |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Raw | tcgplayer | $16 | above fair value by +32.3% |
| Oct 29, 2026 | PSA8 | eBay | $305 | above fair value by +77.2% |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Raw | tcgplayer | $33 | above fair value by +178.4% |
- $292Nov 7, 2026 · via eBayPSA8↑above fair value by 75.6%
- $17Nov 4, 2026 · via tcgplayerRaw↑above fair value by 36.2%
- $16Oct 31, 2026 · via tcgplayerRaw↑above fair value by 32.3%
- $305Oct 29, 2026 · via eBayPSA8↑above fair value by 77.2%
- $33Oct 29, 2026 · via tcgplayerRaw↑above fair value by 178.4%
| Oct 26, 2026 | Raw | tcgplayer | $14 | above fair value by +14.5% |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Raw | tcgplayer | $35 | above fair value by +217.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | PSA9 | eBay | $350 | above fair value by +18.3% |
- $14Raw↑above fair value by 14.5%
- $35Raw↑above fair value by 217.0%
- $350PSA9↑above fair value by 18.3%
15 more sales with Pro
Up to 20 recent sales, each with its venue and its gap to fair value.
All grades matrix
Every grade we track for this printing. Click any column header to sort; the rightmost column jumps you to listings for that grade.
- PSA10$13,5311d ↑10.2%7d ↑8.0%30d ↑75.6%
- Pop
- 30
- Mcap
- $405.9K
- Evidence
- Sparse
- Last
- $9,999
- PSA9$2921d ↓0.1%7d ↑0.4%30d ↑14.2%
- Pop
- 134
- Mcap
- $39.1K
- Evidence
- Moderate
- Last
- $350
- PSA8$1961d ·0.0%7d ↑16.4%30d ↑100.9%
- Pop
- 94
- Mcap
- $18.5K
- Evidence
- Moderate
- Last
- $292
| Listings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA10 | $13,531 | 30 | $405.9K | ↑up 10.2% | ↑up 8.0% | ↑up 75.6% | ↑up 539.4% | Sparse | $9,9991mo ago | |
| PSA9 | $292 | 134 | $39.1K | ↓down 0.1% | ↑up 0.4% | ↑up 14.2% | ↑up 134.7% | Moderate | $3503w ago | |
| PSA8 | $196 | 94 | $18.5K | 0.0% | ↑up 16.4% | ↑up 100.9% | ↑up 311.2% | Moderate | $2921w ago | |
| PSA7 | $44 | 39 | $1.7K | 0.0% | ↑up 7.4% | ↑up 19.7% | ↑up 0.6% | Moderate | $391mo ago | |
| PSA6 | $20 | 18 | $364 | 0.0% | ↑up 17.7% | ↑up 30.5% | ↑up 96.7% | Sparse | $811mo ago | |
| Raw | $12 | - | - | - | ↓down 5.3% | ↑up 9.4% | - | Very strong | $171w ago |
PSA population report
How Lugia's graded copies are spread across grades. Each bar is the number of copies graded at that grade; the percentage is that grade's share of the total graded population. These are recorded graded copies, not the total print run. A smaller population alone does not establish a price premium.315 graded copies of Lugia Reverse Holo across 5 grades. The selected grade is highlighted.
PSA 9 makes up 43% of graded copies: 134 of 315. It’s the most common grade for this card.
Analysis
Lugia - Reverse Holo at PSA 10 carries a TCGBerg fair value of $13,531 as of 2026-11-13. We track a TCGBerg fair value across 5 grades from XY - Fates Collide, from PSA 6 up to PSA 10. A graded population of 30 copies sits behind the PSA 10 grade. The PSA 10 valuation rests on sparse sales evidence. Over the past 30 days, the PSA 10 TCGBerg fair value has risen 75.6%.